Citizens in North America have been relying on an aging GPS satellite system for over a decade now, with the current oldest satellite in use at over 20 years old. As technology improves and the needs of GPS users are constantly changing, the U.S. government is looking at ways to improve and possibly replace the current system. As the General Accounting Office (GAO) is considering different proposals for bids, there will need to be a trade-off between cost and risk for the proposals. Unfortunately, all of life’s decisions involve some kind of trade-off and the government has to make the decision that will be the most affordable for the foreseeable future, as well the most effective. GPS users should be aware of this, because it has the potential to affect their services at the day-to-day level.
Balancing Risk vs. Cost
| Proposed Plan | Expected Risk | Expected Cost |
| Current GPS 3 Program with enhancements in command and control and regional protection | Low | $25 billion |
| Current GPS 3 Program | Low | $23 billion |
| GPS 3 modified for dual launch | Low-medium | $22 billion |
| GPS 3 modified for dual launch and augmented by positioning, navigation, and timing satellites | Medium | $22 billion |
| GPS 3 modified for dual launch and augmented by positioning, navigation, and timing payloads on other satellites | Medium | $21 billion |
| GPS 3 modified for dual launch and augmented by navigational satellites with all military and civilian signals | Medium | $20 billion |
| GPS 3 modified for dual launch and augmented by navigational satellites with some military and civilian signals | Medium | $18 billion |
| NavSat constellation augmented by three positioning, navigation, and timing satellites | High | $14 billion |
| Constellation becomes entirely NavSat based | High | $13 billion |
The High Cost of Technology
The U.S. government is continuing an ongoing battle over budget dollars, so anything that costs as much as the proposed systems needs to be approached delicately. The government can’t afford to make the wrong choice here and have our GPS system, which affects so many important military and civilian devices, end up faulty. The proposals range from a high of $25 billion to a low of $13 billion and involve a variety of options. Unfortunately, as the price goes down, the overall reliability and capabilities of the services rendered goes down as well. The current contract with Lockheed Martin scheduled to launch in 2015, as well as a modified and enhanced version of that one cost the most, at $25 and $23 billion. These two choices both offer the least risk to make sure the system will continue without problem. The lowest priced options carry the highest risk.
GPS 3 Options
The current contract with Lockheed Martin offers several options that can create a variety of cost options, but all run a medium amount of risk for their operation. This is important for users of GPS technology to make sure we have a reliable system. These options involve the government setting up a dual launch to get two satellites in orbit at a time, instead of one. The cost for these options varies from $18-22 billion and all present more risk than launching the satellites one at a time. There are options for more savings by having satellites augmented by launching them with other satellites, putting them higher into orbit to take advantage of other satellites, or putting them with other commercial or government-owned spacecraft. These plans all may require decreasing the sizes and capabilities of the satellites. The savings created by doing this is real, but not significantly better than going with existing plans.
Using Cheaper NavSats
The cheapest, but riskiest, option involves using NavSats, which are smaller satellites, and would not be able to perform all the functions of GPS satellites. Another possibility would come from using geostationary orbiting satellites, which are locked to a point a certain distance above a location on earth. Geostationary satellites are also limited in function and would be unable to do things such as nuclear detonation detection.
Ongoing Research
The GAO is continuing to look for cheaper alternatives. Smaller satellites are being considered, but again they will run the risk of not being able to do as much as a full sized satellite. There is also the problem of time, as many of the potential satellites are a full five or more years from being launch ready. Another wrench that might be thrown in is the sheer number of satellites that may be required.
GPS tracking and locating has contributed to a very efficient society. The first and second generation GPS satellites are nearing the end of their run, but it is comforting to know that the government is making plans to continue with this endeavor that has so many civilian and military applications. Hopefully, this will continue in the future.
Trade-offs for Global Positioning Systems
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