Some experts are predicting that there is at least a 1 out of 10 chance that a solar super storm will hit Earth in the next decade. Effects of it could include widespread worldwide electric blackouts, as well as the failure of GPS technologies.
However, both Britain and the United States are putting together early warning systems that may enable companies to prepare for such storms and protect their electronic equipment—including GPS technologies—from them.
Solar Super Storms: Definitions
So, what exactly is a “solar super storm”? How rare are they? Do they really hit our planet? And, if so, what dangers do they present?
Although the term “solar super storm” sounds frightening, and although such storms can have serious implications here on Earth, they don’t directly cause loss of life. In order to best understand solar super storms, we first need to understand what solar flares and coronal mass ejections are.
Solar flares occur when the sun releases an intense amount of energy in a short period of time. Huge clouds of atoms, ions, and electrons spew into space. Solar flares release UV radiation and X-rays, and these can disrupt radio transmissions and GPS technologies on Earth. If the flare is on Earth’s side of the sun, the ejected materials can reach Earth in a few hours (approximately one or two days) after the event. Solar flares are actually quite common, occurring as often as several times a day or as infrequently as only a few times per week. So, they are not the main concern regarding technological disruption; super solar storms are the main concern.
Often a solar flare is followed by a coronal mass ejection (CME), but not always. However, a CME is not the same thing as a solar flare.
A coronal mass ejection occurs when the sun produces an intense burst of solar wind (charged particles coming from the sun’s upper atmosphere) and magnetic fields—magnetic fields that can play havoc with Earth’s electronic technologies. When the shock wave from these ejections hits Earth, it causes a geomagnetic storm, which can disrupt our planet’s magnetosphere. If an especially large CME erupts from the sun on the same side as the Earth, GPS technologies, radio frequencies, and other electronic transmissions can be severely affected.
History: The Carrington Event and 1989’s Geomagnetic Storms
Back in 1859, two amateur astronomers working in England, Richard Carrington and Richard Hodgson, were the first to observe and document a solar flare. This flare resulted in a huge CME reaching Earth less than 18 hours later. What were the results?
One was that the aurora borealis (a.k.a. “northern lights”) became especially active and visible worldwide, even as far south as the Caribbean; Queensland, Australia; and Hawaii. Of a more serious nature, however, was the resulting disruption to telegraphic communications—some operators received electric shocks, equipment threw off sparks, and communication was disrupted.
Another solar storm event that made the history books was the March 1989 geomagnetic storm, which caused a nine-hour power outage across Quebec, Canada. Later that same year a solar storm forced the closing of the Tokyo stock exchange.
Should a similar event occur nowadays, experts warn that power grids around the world could be disrupted and communication systems—including GPS technologies—could be out of commission for weeks or months. In 2013 researchers determined that such an event could end up costing the world economy over $2.5 trillion.
What Can We Do?
In December 2013, Britain announced that the country would open its first “space-weather centre” that would be able to predict the coming of solar super storms. They hoped to have it functional by the first quarter of 2014, although it may take until 2016 to have the center fully up and running. The total projected cost is over £4.5 million.
British leadership recognizes that the areas that are most vulnerable to such storms are satellite based systems (such as GPS technologies) as well as electrical systems and the loss of electric power as a result of transformers overloading.
Of course, no system yet devised can combat these storms. However, giving businesses and government entities even a few hours of warning can allow them to prepare and can, hopefully, protect worldwide infrastructures from maximum damage.
Coincidentally, shortly after Britain announced their intentions to develop such a system in late 2013, solar flare activity increased. A “powerful solar flare” erupted on Tuesday, January 7, 2014, disrupting radio traffic and causing the delay of the launch of a private cargo ship that had planned a rendezvous with the International Space Station. However, it posed no risk to the space station’s crew members.
Global Positioning Systems Vulnerable to Solar Super Storms?
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