Earth-Shaking News About GPS

Who can ever forget the devastating earthquake and tsunami that rocked Japan in 2011? So many lives were lost and so much destruction caused. And then the questions: What could have been done to lessen the impact? How could more lives have been saved? Technology may hold the answers. Scientists are looking to GPS technology to give them early warning signs for many types of natural disasters, including the notoriously unpredictable earthquake. By combining the precision of GPS with existing technologies used to monitor the earth’s motion, experts may soon be able to warn residents of threatened areas to take cover in time to save many lives.

The Power of Prediction

In the past, earthquakes just seemed to happen without any warning. Today, scientists use a network of seismometers in earthquake-prone areas to pinpoint the center and intensity of an earthquake. Seismometers measure ground motions, including the seismic waves produced by earthquakes and volcanoes. Scientists believe that adding GPS tracking devices to the equation can get them even earlier and more accurate data, thus giving authorities more warning time. The large waves of an earthquake move relatively slowly, so knowing its precise center and intensity within seconds could mean the difference between life and death. How might these statistics have been different if people had been warned earlier?

• October 2013—32 people killed in 7.1 earthquake in the Phillipines


• September 2013—900 people killed in 7.7 earthquake in Pakistan


• July 2013—95 people killed in 5.9 earthquake in China


• April 2013—160 people killed in 6.6 earthquake in China.


• April 2013—37 people killed in 6.3 earthquake in Iran


• February 2013—18 people killed in 8.0 earthquake in the Santa Cruz Islands

These statistics cover only major earthquakes that took place last year and don’t begin to mention the thousands wounded or the extensive damage done. While preventing earthquakes is clearly outside human possibility, early warning systems could get people to safer areas and out of vulnerable buildings before they strike.

Initial Tests

Scientists are currently testing a system that takes existing GPS stations using GPS receivers to see if adding accelerometers will improve their ability to predict an earthquake. The accelerometer can sense even the smallest, most subtle movements in the earth’s crust, especially primary waves that predict the secondary waves that cause the violent shaking of a quake. In combination with the GPS data, scientists can pinpoint an earthquake’s location to within a few centimeters. Authorities can then alert people to take cover, turn off gas lines, stop their cars, and a multitude of other last-second precautions that can be taken to save lives.

A Successful Forecast

Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology were able to successfully predict the Nicoya earthquake that took place in Costa Rica in 2012. The Nicoya Peninsula sits on a subduction zone that results in a large-scale earthquake about every 50 years, so scientists have been gathering data in this area for many years. Most recently, beginning in the 1990s, they have employed GPS technology to map the area’s stored energy. “This is the first place where we’ve been able to map out the likely extent of an earthquake rupture along the subduction megathrust beforehand,” said Andrew Newman, an associate professor in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. With the data in hand, the researchers predicted that the area was due for a 7.8 scale earthquake. They could not determine a set time frame, but they knew it was coming and that it was going to be big. In fact, the earthquake hit just a few months later and measured 7.6 on the Richter scale, proving the validity of GPS technology.

The Possibility of Prediction

Forecasters have long decried their inability to get earthquake warnings out in a timely, life-saving manner. Although data gives them an idea of changes in the earth’s crust that could lead to an earthquake, the true force of the disaster is usually known only seconds before it occurs. Now, through the work of Professor Kosuke Heki at the Hokkaido University in Japan, scientists may well be on their way to making huge advancements in earthquake prediction, not just forecasting. Professor Heki studies and analyzes GPS signals by measuring the Total Electron Content (TEC) in the upper atmosphere. While looking at TEC disruptions after the 2011 earthquake in Japan, he quite accidentally discovered disruptions in the TEC about 40 minutes before the earthquake hit.

Professor Heki’s work with GPS and TEC is being acclaimed by scientists around the world as a breakthrough in earthquake prediction. With the ability to anticipate a natural disaster as devastating as an earthquake well in advance of its onset, authorities may be able to more effectively get people out of harm’s way and save lives.

Earth-Shaking News About GPS